The annual report found that even if the installation price drops at a slower rate, the scale of the residential system continues to grow. The battery adhesion rate is increasing, but it will still be less than 10% by 2020.
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBL) released its annual solar tracking report, which reviewed project-level data on nearly 2.2 million solar systems installed by the end of 2020. The report digests pricing and design trends in the industry.
LBL found that the scale of photovoltaic systems is constantly expanding. In 2020, the average scale of residential systems will reach 6.5 kW, and the average scale of non-residential systems will reach 42 kW. In 2020, 20% of non-residential systems will exceed 200 kilowatts.
Module efficiency also improves over time. In 2002, the average module efficiency in the residential sector was 13.4%. Now they are 19.8%.
The battery energy storage attachment rate in the residential market has been steadily increasing, reaching 8.1% of the full data sample in 2020. The non-residential attachment rate is slightly lower and has been fluctuating for many years.
Module-level power electronics (MLPE) such as micro-inverters or DC optimizers have gained shares, and it has been found that 94% of residential systems are using MLPE. In 71% of installations, small non-residential solar energy is equipped with MLPE, and large non-residential systems use MLPE in a proportion of 26%.
Third-party ownership of solar leases or power purchase agreements has been declining among residential groups, reaching a peak of 59% in 2012. By 2020, this percentage has dropped to 35%. LBL said that in general, states with more incentives usually have higher third-party-owned solar systems.
In the long run, the median installation price in the United States has fallen by about US$0.4/watt per year, but since 2014, the downward trend in prices has gradually slowed. The rate of decline has slowed to approximately US$0.1 to US$0.2 per watt per year. Between 2019 and 2020, the median price of residential systems remained relatively stable at US$3.8 per watt. During the same period, the price of non-residential projects dropped by US$0.2/watt.
From 2019 to 2020, soft costs have also risen slightly, reversing the trend of a decrease of US$0.1 to US$0.2/W per year. On the basis of each state, prices vary greatly. For example, the soft cost of Wisconsin increased by US$0.5/watt, and the state of Delaware decreased by US$0.3/watt.
The United States needs to catch up in price cuts because the median price is almost twice that of other countries. The price of US$3.8/watt far exceeds that of Germany and Australia, with median prices of US$1.6/W and US$1.2/W respectively.
The installation price of each customer group depends to a large extent on the size of the system. The LBL report stated that the median price difference between the smallest and largest residential systems was $1.1/watt, and the median price difference between the smallest and largest non-residential systems was $1.9/watt.
Ground installation has a significant impact on the installation price, with an average increase of US$0.40/watt. However, the report claims that such solutions are relatively uncommon in the residential sector. Other price impacts include high-efficiency modules (+$0.14/watt), micro-inverters (+$0.14/watt), DC optimizers (+$0.24/watt) and new structures (-$0.08/watt).
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